Transcript

Thank you so much. Thanks for that really kind introduction is lovely to be back here and to have an absolutely packed room full of people. Yeah, somewhere gonna tell you a little bit about the second book that I've written, which is called How to expect the unexpected. And there are two main phenomena that I want to draw to people's attention. Maybe you'll be familiar with some of these ideas, maybe you won't. But I hope that some of some of the stories that may still be entertaining throughout the talk, so the two main phenomena that I think that can confound us in our everyday lives that we maybe don't allow for our non linearity, and randomness. So I want to start by talking about non linearity.

And I've said the word twice now already, and I haven't yet told you what non linearity actually means. But in order to tell you what non linearity means, I first have to talk a little bit about what linearity means. So what is linearity, it may be a familiar concept for many people, but maybe not for others. So here's an example for for an exchange rate, I'm changing pounds into New Zealand dollars. And the idea of a linear relationship is that a fixed change in the input should give me a fixed change in the output. And when I draw that on a graph, it turns up as a straight line, hence the name linear, right. So if I want to change 20 pounds into dollars, the exchange rate is roughly two to one for New Zealand dollars.